Big East Notes and News

While all of the attention at the Big East tournament will be on the top teams, what makes the league’s annual basketball showdown interesting is really driven by the teams on the "bubble."

The top four teams will go to the dance even with a first round loss. The popular thinking right now is at least 7 teams from the Big East are going to dance, but eight is more likely given the Big East is the strongest basketball conference from top to bottom. Sorry Big 12.  

As Kentucky Coach C. laid it on the line in a recent interview, it is all about 1) getting an invitation to the dance and 2) your seeding when you get there.  The conference tournaments really don't matter beyond that.  So, the question becomes which 8 will go and what will there seed be?  The bottom line-This is what they are playing for this week in the Big East.

First, here are the four Big East teams that have a lock on the NCAA tournament: Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova and West Virginia

Then we have those that are going to have to win it all to go dancing: DePaul, Providence, Rutgers and St. John's.

This means the real story is about these bubble teams:

(12)  Connecticut - Most think they have to win three games.  They were beaten soundly by USF this past weekend.  If it were any other team besides the storied UConn, they would have to win the tournament.  Many want to see the Huskies hang on to their consecutive NCAA appearance streak...so they get a little extra push from the committee.

(11)  Cincinnati – The Bearcats barely make it on this list as many think they must win the tournament to be invited to the ball. It will take a minimum of three wins to secure a place in the bigger tournament. Again, Cincy is one of those teams with a strong history in the NCAA tournament...so they will get a little extra help from the committee that other teams would not.

(10)  Seton Hall - They would likely be a lock if they win three games...with wins over Providence, Notre Dame and Pitt.  Winning two would keep them on the bubble.  Then it may depend on how they play against Pitt.  If they get handily beaten by Pitt they may be on the outside looking in.  If they give Pitt a strong game they will want to be paying attention when the invitations are announced.  It will really depend on how the other Big East "bubble teams" perform in the tournament to see if two wins will be enough.

(9)  USF -Going in to the tournament with a 9-9 record, one would think two wins would be enough to give the Bulls their first tournament bid in 18 years. This would give USF a 21-10 overall record and 11-10 against Big East competition.  They would also have a 2-0 record against Georgetown, one of the "bubble teams".  However, unlike UConn and Cincy, they do not have a strong reputation, so two wins may not be enough.  However, three wins makes them a LOCK because that third win would be against Syracuse.

(8)  Georgetown - Many think their body of work has already secured the Hoyas a spot in the tournament.  However a loss to USF(assuming they beat DePaul) could jeopardize the invitation.  An 0-2 record against USF combined with spotty play down the stretch would make them very uncomfortable on Sunday evening when the field is set. 

(7)  Notre Dame - Again, many think they have played their way into the tournament after winning four straight coming into the Big East Tournament.  Having star Luke Harangody working his way back in to playing more minutes is huge.  The committee takes into account injuries and the status of the team at tournament time when making decisions. This might make the committee may feel better about a hot Notre Dame team.  I may go out on a limb and say they are already in even with a first round loss to Providence or Seton Hall.  One win in the Big East Tournament would make them a LOCK!

(6)  Louisville - Having a 2-0 record against the #1 seed Syracuse, an 11-7 record in the Big East and 20 wins should be sufficient to have secured an NCAA invitation.  Even with a first round loss to Cincy, the Cardinals should be safe.  However, if Rutgers beats Cincy and then upsets Louisville...they may be a little uncomfortable on Selection Sunday but they will still be safe.  A first round win makes them a LOCK.

(5)  Marquette - After an 11-8 start to the season, the Warriors have won 9 of the last 11 games to produce a very respectable 20-10 season.  The committee gives an edge to teams that finish strong, particularly in the Big East.  Being the # 5 seed in the Big East, makes Marquette a likely invitation recipient even with a first round loss. However, if St. John's pulls the unlikely upset over UConn and then delivers a blow to Marquette...well, the Warriors will be sitting on the edge of their seats come selection Sunday.  A first round win guarantees them a spot in the big dance.  No matter what happens in the Big East Tournament, if Marquette does not receive an invitation, expect Dick Vitale and other "experts" to cry foul!

The top four teams are really playing for NCAA Tournament seeding:

1)  Syracuse - Win the first game and they are likely a #1 seed.  Make it to the finals and they are locked in the # 1 seed.

2)  Pittsburgh - Lose your first game and you may drop to a #4 seed.  Win your first game and you are at least a #3 seed.  Make it to the finals and you may be a #2 seed.  Win the tournament...what about a #1 seed?  This might be a stretch, but who knows? 

3)  West Virginia - Lose your first game and you are a #3 seed (at worst a #4 seed).  Win your first game and you are a lock for a #3 seed.  Win your second game and make it to the finals, the Mountaineers will lock down a #3 seed and are likely to be a #2 seed.  Even with a Big East Tournament win the Mountaineers are not likely to be awarded a top seed.  

4)  Villanova - Lose your first game and you are a #4 seed.  Win your first game and you are a #3 seed.  If you win the semi-final game then, the Wildcats would secure a #2 seed.  Even with a tournament win, it may be difficult for the Wildcats to improve this.  For Villanova to be considered a #1 seed, two things must happen:  a) they must win the Big East Tournament convincingly and b) other potential #1 seeds must falter in their respective conference tournaments. 

That is quite a bit of basketball to absorb in one setting, but there is still plenty of basketball to be played in the Big East.